The Mobility Market Outlook (MMO), released by the data and market research institute Statista, predicts that the global travel and tourism revenue for 2021 is forecast to increase by over 50 per cent compared to 2020. The MMO further reveals that the global travel and tourism market is set to recover fully from the coronavirus pandemic by 2023 and achieve record turnover figures, for 2025 the MMO experts even predict a revenue growth of almost 23 per cent compared to 2019.

Even as the spread of the coronavirus changed the everyday lives of billions and triggered an economic crisis for many companies, the MMO presents cause for hope.

Statista projects a 55 per cent loss of turnover in the tourism industry for 2020. According to UNWTO figures, between 1950 and 2019 annual international arrivals increased from 25 million to almost 1.5 billion, by a total of 5,744 per cent. By contrast, in October 2020, year-on-year international tourism arrivals fell by 72 per cent.

Restrictions and government policies severely impact the travel industry
In 2020, the tourism industry has been heavily impacted by the restrictions put in place by national governments due to the pandemic. Various statistics show that the months, in which strict measures were issued to contain its spread, were particularly challenging for the tourism sector. According to UNWTO figures, hotel bookings in Germany declined considerably during spring and autumn – in April German hotels registered a year-on-year drop in visitors of 91 per cent.

The Statista projections, which are based on figures from WTTC, WorldData and OECD, show that domestic tourism markets in Germany and many other countries have not been impacted as severely by the coronavirus pandemic as international tourism. In 2019, domestic tourism accounted for close to 259 billion euros, 85 per cent of Germany’s domestic tourism revenues, whereas for 2020 the share is projected to be 91 per cent (approx. 173 billion euros). Accordingly, turnover in Germany’s international tourism market is forecast to shrink by over 60 per cent, from approximately 45 billion to around 16 billion euros. At the same time domestic tourism is expected to recover as early as 2022, with turnover reaching 2019 levels.

Resurgence of the travel industry
Reflecting the speedy recovery that industry experts and large travel companies expect in the market, TUI recently declared that travel in summer 2021 would be ‘normal’. However, depending on how vaccination progresses and the lockdown periods imposed by countries, experts urge travellers to exercise caution and regularly reassess plans in line with current developments. Nevertheless, it is expected that people will have a desire to catch up on the last few months of missed travel experiences as soon as possible. Furthermore, trends that are likely to take off in the tourism industry in the near future are becoming apparent. Experts at Statista forecast that technological innovations will have a positive impact on the industry, e.g., AI-based, personalised services and innovative forms of presenting tourism services with VR. Thus, the current low volume of travel together with technological innovations could spur a rapid recovery of the industry.